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Country Economy Highlight in 2009. Briefs from Vietnam Economy News

The biggest achievement of Vietnam’s economy in 2009 was its positive growth rate in the face of difficulties, an achievement only a few Asian countries could boast this year.  Here are the six most outstanding features of Vietnam’s economy in 2009, according to VnMedia.

Overcoming economic downturn with growth

For Vietnam, the lowest point of the economic crisis was in the first quarter of 2009, when the GDP growth rate was just 3.1 percent, the lowest level in the last few decades. Production, trade, service and export all fell into stagnation.

Thanks to a series of economic stimulus measures, including the interest rate subsidy programme, tax payment delay and tax reduction, and the loosened monetary policy, Vietnam’s economy made a strong recovery. It began to stabilize in the second quarter of 2009 and recovered strongly in the last two quarters to obtain a GDP growth rate of 5.2 percent for all of 2009. This is an impressive statistic for an Asia country and also globally.

Vietnam sees record ODA commitments

The encouraging results in dealing with the economic crisis were hailed by international donors, who pledged a record ODA (official development assistance) of over eight billion dollars for Vietnam in 2009.

The ODA numbers show that the international community believes that Vietnam is dealing well with the crisis, making effective disbursements and has good economic prospects. The large sum is especially significant nowadays, when the world is still facing economic woes and and capital is not easily accessed.

The donors expressed optimistic views about Vietnam’s economy at the Consultative Group Meeting held in Vietnam in early December 2009, saying that the 2009 business environment in Vietnam was the best in the last three years. 80 percent of enterprises plan to expand business in the upcoming three years.

Sharp rise in dong/dollar exchange rate, gold price

The year 2009 witnessed the chaos in the gold market. The gold price was 18-19 million dong per tael at the beginning of 2009 and rose to 29 million dong per tael in December, before stabilizing at 26-27 million dong per tael now.

Domestic gold prices were always higher than the world’s prices and gold trading companies were the biggest beneficiaries.

Vietnamese investors tend to follow the crowd, which spurred on by rumours, led to “gold price fever attacks.” The herd mentality explains why the domestic gold price dropped dramatically by two million dong per tael right after the State Bank of Vietnam allowed gold imports to resume, even though the world’s price did not decrease.

Chaos was also seen on gold trading floors, where investors traded gold on accounts. Gold investors complained about the “troubles in the transaction systems” that made them lose tens of billions of dong. The gold trading floors will be shut down by March 30, 2010.

The foreign currency market was hotter than ever before in 2009. The dollar price escalated, while businesses complained they could not purchase dollars to pay import deals. The Government had to take strong measures to cool the foreign currency market down, asking state-owned corporations to sell the dollars they had to banks.

The black market’s dollar price is now at 19-20,000 dong, while commercial banks are quoting the dollar price at 18,500 dong per dollar.

Vietnam’s rice exports reached record high

According to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam exported over six million tonnes of rice in 2009 with the export revenue of $2.74 billion. The export volume represents a 33 percent increase in comparison with 2007 (4.5 million tonnes) and 30.4 percent in comparison with 2008 (4.6 million tonnes).

However, trade analysts have pointed out that Vietnamese farmers see few benefits. According to the Vietnam Farmers’ Association, traders, who undertake 10 percent of jobs in the rice production chain, still take 67 percent of the profits.

Stock market fell, then recovered rapidly

Bearing the impact from the global economic recession, the stock market hit its deepest low in the last four years, with the VN Index dropping to 235.5 points on February 24.

After the economic stimulus measures, the VN Index began rising, climbing to 630 points in late October and now hovering around 500 points.

Real estate market bustling

The real estate market bustled in the second and third quarters of 2009 before it quieted in the fourth quarter.Many foreign direct investment projects in 2009 were also in the real estate sector, with registered capital of $7.6 billion.

Read more about banking review 2009

Country Economy Outlook (May-2008). Brief from Vietnam Financial Review & Report of VN Government on Jun.2008

Since the beginning of the year, drastic measures have been taken to cool down consumer prices, including: curbing money supply, raising interest rates, and freezing energy and input prices. On the fiscal side, the government is cutting spending and reigning in budget funded investments, putting on hold projects deemed unnecessary and unproductive. The construction of government offices has been stopped.

Government efforts to combat inflation have been tireless, but also futile. Inflation in April and since the beginning of the year has been the highest in 16 years. There is sign of a slow down in March and April, but the rate of deceleration is modest, suggesting upward pressure is still mounting. ADB’s inflation forecast for this year is an overwhelming 15.6 percent. As the price of oil rises across the world, domestic prices will continue to rise after the current freeze on the fuel price expires in June. Another surge in CPI in the second half of the year is imminent.

But inflation is not the only problem. The worsening trade gap after the first quarter is causing the government headaches. The deficit in the first four months reached $11.4 billion, almost 50 percent of GDP – compared to $14.1 billion (20 percent GDP) for all of last year; which, notably, was the highest ever before. The situation is expected to worsen; the deficit might reach $20 – 30 billion while the country’s total foreign currency reserves currently stand at only $20 billion.

The banking sector continues to be under enormous strain due to a lack of liquidity as the campaign against inflation wages on. Since the beginning of this year, as part of the effort to curb money supply, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has raised commercial banks Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) from 10 percent to 11 percent and is requiring banks to purchase VND20.3 trillion of SBV certificates. As a result, nearly VND40 trillion in cash has been mobbed up pushing many commercial banks with bad cash flow into trouble. In March, the central bank called in VND52 trillion VND which it lent to state-owned commercial banks ten years ago (at 3 percent annual interest) – The move has pushed the whole system to the verge of a dire liquidity crisis. The interest rate ceiling at this time of high inflation results in a negative real interest rate an unwise policy as the central bank is trying to reduce the money supply.  In the coming months, the SBV is expected to rigorously evaluate and revise its policy if the fight against inflation is to be won without friendly fire devastating the banking sector.

As the fight against inflation continues, monetary tightening will continue, depleting fuels that feed share prices. The unfavorable economic conditions (runaway inflation, a worsening trade deficit, and the banking sector’s liquidity problems) means the market will not see brighter days anytime soon.

Social Economiec Indicator in first 9 months 2007 (+/-) in percentage year on year